Le Brexit, Trump, les droits de douane 1.0, l’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie, la crise des gilts britanniques sous Truss, la flambée des prix alimentaires, Trump (encore lui), le Liberation Day, la chute des cours des actions dans le secteur des logiciels, et maintenant l’Iran et de nouveaux bouleversements politiques au Royaume-Uni.
Au cours de la dernière décennie, nous avons assisté à une succession de chocs – des événements que les marchés ont considérés comme des anomalies, mais qui s’inscrivent en réalité dans une tendance. Plutôt qu’une succession d’événements imprévisibles, ces chocs reflètent un phénomène plus structurel.
Plusieurs lignes de faille sont à l’origine de chocs politiques, économiques et environnementaux récurrents, et il est peu probable qu’elles disparaissent.
Nationales
Internationales
Environnement
The US has lost close to 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Macrobond, March 2026
Dans notre article complet, disponible ici, nous expliquons comment ces facteurs ont conduit à une ère de chocs successifs et pourquoi il ne faudrait pas s’étonner si les chocs politiques, économiques et climatiques auxquels nous avons assisté au cours de la dernière décennie devaient se reproduire.
Jusqu’à présent, parmi les chocs dont nous parlons, seul celui de 2022, lié à l’invasion russe de l’Ukraine, a eu un impact significatif sur un portefeuille équilibré et diversifié à l’international, composé d’actions et d’obligations. Même la pandémie de Covid n’a provoqué qu’un choc très bref sur les portefeuilles diversifiés.
Mais ce n’est pas parce que la plupart des tremblements de terre ne sont que de simples secousses qu’ils le sont tous.
Les implications en matière d’investissement sont les suivantes :
Tout comme les Japonais construisent aujourd’hui des bâtiments capables de fléchir pour résister aux séismes fréquents, les investisseurs devraient concevoir leurs portefeuilles de manière à y intégrer la souplesse nécessaire pour résister à des chocs réguliers.
Pour en savoir plus sur Mike : Présentation de Mike Bell, responsable des marchés chez RBC BlueBay
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