Prévisions pour le Brésil : temps nuageux avec quelques éclaircies

Jul 09, 2026

Lors d’un récent voyage de recherche au Brésil, nous sommes allés à la rencontre d’entreprises, d’institutions financières et de décideurs politiques afin de prendre le pouls d’une économie confrontée à des taux d’intérêt élevés et à une incertitude politique.

Principaux enseignements:

  • Des baisses de taux reportées, mais pas abandonnées : l’inflation persistante a mis un frein au cycle d’assouplissement monétaire du Brésil pour cette année. Nous prévoyons toutefois que les baisses de taux reprendront en 2027, à mesure que la situation se normalisera.
  • Une année politique décisive : le vent a tourné en faveur du président sortant Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, à la suite des révélations de corruption concernant Bolsonaro. Toutefois, le scrutin étant prévu début octobre, les dés ne sont pas encore jetés.
  • La résilience des consommateurs : l’effervescence des centres commerciaux et le dynamisme des enseignes de cosmétiques témoignent de la vigueur des dépenses des ménages, les équipes de direction changeant les magasins physiques en destinations axées sur une expérience client durant toute la journée.
  • Les tensions dans le secteur bancaire sont maîtrisées : les grandes banques ont anticipé la détérioration du crédit agricole et ont pris des mesures de réduction des risques précoces, limitant ainsi une propagation plus large au sein du secteur.
  • Les GLP-1 constituent un facteur de croissance structurel : le taux d’obésité élevé au Brésil, associé à des taux d’adoption actuellement très faibles, laisse entrevoir un potentiel de croissance significatif à long terme pour les traitements basés sur les médicaments GLP-1.

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