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Points clés :
Le nouveau président, Donald Trump, a déjà eu un impact exceptionnel sur les marchés financiers. Bien que la Fed ait baissé ses taux de 100 pb au cours du deuxième trimestre 2024 (de 5,50 % à 4,50 %), les marchés des actions et des obligations ont suivi la trajectoire inverse. Début octobre, le marché avait anticipé des baisses de taux de 125 pb pour 2025. Pourtant, à l’heure de la rédaction de ces lignes, les prévisions annoncent une seule baisse cette année, de 0,25%1.
Les évolutions des rendements des bons du Trésor américain à plus long terme ont été d’une ampleur similaire : les échéances à 10 ans sont à 100 pb plus haut et s’approchent des 5 %. Les marchés des devises ont également connu des mouvements significatifs au cours de cette période, l’indice du dollar américain ayant enregistré une hausse de près de 10 % depuis fin octobre. Certaines de ces évolutions peuvent être attribuées à la quantité croissance d’indices en faveur d’une exception américaine en matière de croissance. Toutefois, nous pouvons affirmer avec conviction que les « Trump trades » se sont également déroulés de manière spectaculaire.
À ce stade, il est illusoire de tenter d’émettre des prédictions spécifiques quant à l’évolution de la situation dans les six prochains mois. Les incertitudes sont en effet trop grandes, et Trump est trop imprévisible.
Cependant, nous nous appuyons sur une vieille maxime : « Prenons Trump au sérieux, mais pas au pied de la lettre ». Prendre Trump au sérieux signifie qu’il faut tenir compte des raisons de sa victoire en novembre dernier, y compris l’ampleur des désillusions et du ressentiment de l’Amérique moyenne envers le statu quo social et politique aux États-Unis.
Une chose est claire, les supporters de Trump veulent du sang. Ils veulent voir une disruption majeure, en particulier en matière de politique économique, de sécurité aux frontières et de politique migratoire. Or, nous pensons que Trump sera enclin à leur donner ce qu’ils veulent.
Lorsqu’il continue à employer une rhétorique extravagante et contradictoire (nommant le Canada « 51e état des États-Unis et menaçant d’annexer le canal de Panama), il fait du bruit et crée des écrans de fumée destinés à dynamiser sa base et exaspérer ses opposants. Il y a bien peu de substance là-dedans. Les véritables contours de ses politiques fiscale et douanière ont plus d’importance.
Qu’est-ce que cela signifie pour notre stratégie macroéconomique ? Le dernier trimestre 2024 et le début du mois de janvier ont confirmé nos prévisions. Notre « Trump trade » a été relativement simple : position courte sur les taux US et longue sur le dollar américain. Ces deux stratégies se sont avérées payantes.
Toutefois, à mesure que Trump prendra ses quartiers dans le Bureau ovale, nous devrions obtenir davantage de détails concrets sur les politiques à venir, la proposition en termes de valorisation pour ces deux grandes lignes macroéconomiques étant bien moins claire que l’année dernière.
1 Bloomberg
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