Amérique latine : mutations politiques et résilience des entreprises

Feb 10, 2026

2026 est une année électorale importante en Amérique latine, et sera marquée par un certain nombre d’élections qui devraient remodeler la région et déterminer son avenir. Lors d’un récent voyage au Brésil et au Chili, nous sommes allés à la rencontre des équipes de direction des entreprises dans lesquelles nous investissons et avons participé à une conférence d’investisseurs afin d’obtenir un aperçu privilégié de la réalité du terrain.

Principaux enseignements:

  • Les candidats de droite gagnent en popularité : les électeurs privilégient de plus en plus la sécurité et une trajectoire économique prévisible, plutôt que l’idéologie, et se tournent ainsi vers des candidats promettant de l’ordre, de la discipline et des perspectives de croissance tangibles.
  • Une nouvelle étape s’ouvre pour le Chili : le nouveau président de droite, José Antonio Kast, devrait progressivement mettre en place des mesures, dont des nominations ministérielles, des réformes favorables aux entreprises et des incitations fiscales pour la R&D. Toutefois, malgré ses intentions indéniablement constructives, le « comment » reste flou.
  • Les élections brésiliennes d’octobre restent incertaines : d’importants développements sont à prévoir d’ici à la date du scrutin, avec un potentiel de changement positif.
  • Les entreprises brésiliennes font preuve de résilience : les principales entreprises du pays continuent de proposer de bons rendements malgré les taux d’intérêt, l’inflation et la volatilité politique élevés de ces dernières années. Cela souligne leur force opérationnelle et la qualité de leur gestion.
  • La région est bien positionnée en matière de croissance : l’Amérique latine peut tirer parti de la demande mondiale de matières premières, de transitions énergétiques, de tendances en matière de nearshoring et de la modernisation numérique. Reste à savoir si les dirigeants peuvent réellement répondre aux demandes des électeurs.

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