Perspectives de marché 2026 : Perspectives macro

Dec 04, 2025

Mark Dowding, Chief Investment Officer de BlueBay, dresse un résumé macro de l’année 2025 pour les marchés des obligations et partage ses réflexions pour 2026.

  • Les marchés obligataires américains ont prospéré en 2025, les bons du Trésor affichant une belle progression, liée à la baisse des taux d’intérêt tout au long de l’année. La croissance économique américaine solide a soutenu la surperformance du crédit des entreprises, entraînant des spreads plus serrés tant sur le segment investment grade que du côté du haut rendement.
  • Les marchés européens se sont trouvés en difficulté, les plans d’expansion budgétaire de l’Allemagne ayant poussé les rendements du Bund à la hausse, accentuant les courbes et pesant sur les rendements de l’indice. Les spreads souverains français se sont détériorés dans un contexte de difficultés budgétaires persistantes et de volatilité politique, même si les fluctuations des spreads sont restées contenues avant les élections de 2027.
  • Au Royaume-Uni, nous avons observé que les gilts à échéance plus longue se débattre dans un contexte d’incertitude quant à la crédibilité des politiques, malgré les baisses de taux de la Banque d’Angleterre, qui ont contribué à une pentification de la courbe des rendements.
  • En revanche, la vigueur économique du Japon a poussé la Banque du Japon à relever ses taux, les politiques reflationnistes de la nouvelle Première ministre, Sanae Takaichi, poussant les rendements à la hausse et raidissant la courbe. L’occasion de se rappeler que la politique et les politiques peuvent être une force de premier plan sur les marchés obligataires.
  • Les marchés financiers mondiaux sont restés relativement stables malgré les politiques douanières de Donald Trump. Ils ont ainsi évité les perturbations majeures causées par les tensions commerciales qui ont conduit à une évolution latérale du dollar américain pendant une grande partie de 2025.
  • En 2026, la dynamique économique américaine devrait se poursuivre : les prévisions incluent des milliards d’euros d’investissements dans l’intelligence artificielle, des réductions d’impôts et la déréglementation, parallèlement à une croissance résiliente et à une hausse de l’inflation.
  • Les marchés européens devraient rester en demi-teinte, avec une conjoncture économique apathique et des réductions de taux limitées.
  • Les marchés du crédit sont privilégiés pour les revenus liés au carry, avec des opportunités dans les titres financiers subordonnés et les tranches CLO de haute qualité.
  • Le Japon et le Royaume-Uni se distinguent comme des marchés sujets à la volatilité macro/politique, offrant des possibilités aux gestionnaires actifs.


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