La marche ininterrompue de l’Etat providence

Nov 28, 2025

C'était la semaine tant attendue – et celle des fuites – du budget britannique !

Points clés

  • Les rendements obligataires américains ont baissé cette semaine, les marchés anticipant une probabilité de 80 % d'une baisse des taux de 25 points de base en décembre. Il s'agira probablement de la dernière décision de Jerome Powell avant la fin de son mandat en mai 2026, Kevin Hassett étant pressenti pour lui succéder.
  • Les marchés obligataires européens sont restés calmes, le plan de paix américain proposé en Ukraine étant suivi de près. On craint qu'un accord trop faible ne provoque un retour de bâton politique et des tensions migratoires au sein de l'UE.
  • Le budget britannique tant attendu a été présenté mercredi. Les mesures prévues prévoient des dépenses publiques supplémentaires à court terme, compensées par une hausse des impôts par la suite, la plupart des mesures budgétaires douloureuses n'entrant en vigueur qu'après la date des prochaines élections générales.
  • Au Japon, le yen a récupéré une partie de ses pertes récentes grâce à la hausse des anticipations d'une hausse des taux de la BoJ en décembre. Nous pensons que la banque centrale devrait maintenir ses taux inchangés lors de sa réunion de décembre, mais si cela pousse le yen vers 160 contre le dollar, cela pourrait servir de catalyseur à une hausse en janvier.
  • Les marchés se concentreront sur la prochaine réunion de la Fed comme catalyseur clé, compte tenu du nombre limité de données et de discours des participants à la Fed. En dehors de cela, le sentiment des marchés actions s'améliore et la baisse de la liquidité en décembre devrait être favorable aux détenteurs d'actifs risqués.

Veuillez lire l’article complet ici

* Veuillez noter que ce contenu n’est disponible qu'en anglaise.

Recevez nos perspectives par e-mail

Abonnez-vous dès à présent pour recevoir directement dans votre boîte mail les dernières perspectives de nos experts sur l’économie et l’investissement.

This document is a marketing communication and it may be produced and issued by the following entities: in the European Economic Area (EEA), by BlueBay Funds Management Company S.A. (BBFM S.A.), which is regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). In Germany, Italy, Spain and Netherlands the BBFM S.A is operating under a branch passport pursuant to the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities Directive (2009/65/EC) and the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (2011/61/EU). In the United Kingdom (UK) by RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited (RBC GAM UK), which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) as authorised by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In Switzerland, by BlueBay Asset Management AG where the Representative and Paying Agent is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland. The place of performance is at the registered office of the Representative. The courts at the registered office of the Swiss representative or at the registered office or place of residence of the investor shall have jurisdiction pertaining to claims in connection with the offering and/or advertising of shares in Switzerland. The Prospectus, the Key Investor Information Documents (KIIDs), the Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products - Key Information Documents (PRIIPs KID), where applicable, the Articles of Incorporation and any other document required, such as the Annual and Semi-Annual Reports, may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland. In Japan, by BlueBay Asset Management International Limited which is registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau of Ministry of Finance, Japan. In Asia, by RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited, which is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong. In Australia, RBC GAM UK is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act in respect of financial services as it is regulated by the FCA under the laws of the UK which differ from Australian laws. In Canada, by RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (including PH&N Institutional) which is regulated by each provincial and territorial securities commission with which it is registered. RBC GAM UK is not registered under securities laws and is relying on the international dealer exemption under applicable provincial securities legislation, which permits RBC GAM UK to carry out certain specified dealer activities for those Canadian residents that qualify as "a Canadian permitted client”, as such term is defined under applicable securities legislation. In the United States, by RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc. ("RBC GAM-US"), an SEC registered investment adviser. The entities noted above are collectively referred to as “RBC BlueBay” within this document. The registrations and memberships noted should not be interpreted as an endorsement or approval of RBC BlueBay by the respective licensing or registering authorities. Not all products, services or investments described herein are available in all jurisdictions and some are available on a limited basis only, due to local regulatory and legal requirements.

This document is intended only for “Professional Clients” and “Eligible Counterparties” (as defined by the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”) or the FCA); or in Switzerland for “Qualified Investors”, as defined in Article 10 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act and its implementing ordinance, or in the US by “Accredited Investors” (as defined in the Securities Act of 1933) or “Qualified Purchasers” (as defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940) as applicable and should not be relied upon by any other category of customer.

Unless otherwise stated, all data has been sourced by RBC BlueBay. To the best of RBC BlueBay’s knowledge and belief this document is true and accurate at the date hereof. RBC BlueBay makes no express or implied warranties or representations with respect to the information contained in this document and hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of accuracy, completeness or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. RBC BlueBay does not provide investment or other advice and nothing in this document constitutes any advice, nor should be interpreted as such. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product in any jurisdiction and is for information purposes only.

No part of this document may be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose in any manner without the prior written permission of RBC BlueBay. Copyright 2023 © RBC BlueBay. RBC Global Asset Management (RBC GAM) is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) which includes RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc. (RBC GAM-US), RBC Global Asset Management Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited and RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited, which are separate, but affiliated corporate entities. ® / Registered trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada and BlueBay Asset Management (Services) Ltd. Used under licence. BlueBay Funds Management Company S.A., registered office 4, Boulevard Royal L-2449 Luxembourg, company registered in Luxembourg number B88445. RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, registered office 100 Bishopsgate, London EC2N 4AA, registered in England and Wales number 03647343. All rights reserved.

Direct from Dowding

Je veux recevoir les analyses de Mark Dowding directement dans ma messagerie.


Confirmez votre demande

Je certifie être un investisseur institutionnel / un professionnel de l'investissement. En soumettant ces informations, j'accepte de recevoir des e-mails de RBC BlueBay Asset Management, en plus de tout autre abonnement de mon choix.

(Vous pouvez vous désabonner ou adapter vos préférences à tout moment au bas de chaque e-mail que vous recevrez. Lisez notre politique de confidentialité pour savoir comment nous assurons la protection de vos informations personnelles).


Veuillez saisir les caractères que vous voyez ci-dessous :

Une erreur s'est produite lors de l'obtention de l'image captcha