Les tourments qu’elle s’inflige

Nov 21, 2025

Des problèmes au Japon et au Royaume-Uni !

Points clés

  • Le procès-verbal du FOMC et le rapport sur l'emploi de septembre, peu concluant, suggèrent qu'une baisse des taux en décembre est peu probable, même si une nouvelle baisse est attendue avant que la politique monétaire ne soit maintenue. Nous ne prévoyons pas d'autres baisses en 2026 en raison des perspectives économiques favorables.
  • La forte croissance du PIB, les baisses de taux, les réductions d'impôts et la déréglementation laissent présager une accélération de l'activité économique aux États-Unis. Les investissements de 300 milliards de dollars dans l'IA pourraient faire grimper le PIB réel à 3,5 % en 2026, avec un IPC pouvant atteindre 3,5 %.
  • Les politiques de relance monétaire du Premier ministre Takaichi perturbent les marchés. Contrairement à l'époque de l'Abenomics, le Japon est aujourd'hui confronté à une inflation élevée, et non à une inflation faible. Cela suscite des inquiétudes quant à la viabilité de la dette souveraine et à la volatilité du marché obligataire.
  • La crédibilité de la chancelière Rachel Reeves est mise à mal par ses revirements politiques, ce qui entraîne une hausse des rendements des gilts et des craintes d'instabilité politique. Une position courte sur la livre sterling est maintenue en raison des scénarios limités de reprise de la devise britannique.
  • L'UE reste stable mais fait face à un marasme économique à long terme, avec des coûts énergétiques élevés et une compétitivité en baisse. Les mesures de relance budgétaire devraient permettre une reprise du PIB en 2026, mais la confiance des consommateurs et des entreprises reste faible.
  • La volatilité induite par les politiques continue d'influencer les marchés, en particulier dans un contexte de dette publique élevée et de mécontentement des électeurs. L'éclatement potentiel d'une bulle spéculative autour de l'IA reste une source d'inquiétude pour les investisseurs, mais les solides résultats financiers de Nvidia ont contribué à apaiser les sentiments baissiers.

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