La société est-elle « ignorée » du PIB ?

Feb 27, 2026

Une apocalypse menée par l’IA est-elle imminente ?

Points clés

  • Tarifs douaniers et politique : la cote de popularité du président Trump est tombée à 40 % à l'approche des élections de mi-mandat, et les nouveaux tarifs douaniers annoncés à la suite de la décision de la Cour suprême pourraient entraîner un manque à gagner potentiel et une pression politique.
  • Inquiétudes liées à la disruption de l'IA : le « PIB fantôme » fait peur, de nouvelles recherches suggérant que si les investissements dans l'IA stimulent la croissance, la production économique qui en résulte pourrait ne pas profiter aux ménages.
  • Divergence entre l'Inde et la Corée en matière d'IA : l'Inde apparaît comme un perdant potentiel de l'IA, les emplois externalisés étant menacés de remplacement, tandis que la Corée se positionne comme un bénéficiaire. Cela rend le long won/short roupie attractif pour les opérations de dispersion.
  • Pression politique au Royaume-Uni : le Parti travailliste a terminé troisième aux élections partielles de Gorton et Denton, perdant son bastion centenaire au profit du Parti vert. Les Verts et le Parti réformiste ont tous deux capitalisé sur le mécontentement des électeurs, coinçant le Parti travailliste entre les défis populistes de gauche et de droite dans ce bastion traditionnel.
  • Perspectives macroéconomiques : les marchés continuent d'évoluer latéralement, ce qui justifie une prise de risque modérée à l'heure actuelle. La dispersion sur les marchés du crédit s'accentue, tandis que les opérations de carry trade restent soutenues par une faible volatilité et des conditions économiques stables.

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