Dette des marchés émergents : dollar et directions

Feb 11, 2026
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Polina Kurdyavko
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Mike Reed
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RBC BlueBay Emerging Markets Debt team

Polina Kurdyavko, responsable de la dette des ME, et Mike Reed, responsable des institutions financières mondiales, évoquent le risque politique lié à l’actualité, les conséquences d’un dollar affaibli pour les devises des marchés émergents, et les défis et opportunités pour la classe d’actifs pour l’année en cours.

Points clés :

  • Résilience face au risque géopolitique :  malgré la politique étrangère agressive de Donald Trump, la classe d’actifs a fait preuve de solidité et présente une volatilité à son plus bas niveau en 15 ans. Tant que cette volatilité est limitée, on devrait continuer d’observer des flux de capitaux.
  • Opportunités en devises locales : les marchés obligataires en devises locales des ME rivalisent désormais avec les bons du Trésor américain en termes de taille, 85 % des titres étant libellés en devise locale. Les différentiels de taux réels et la valorisation du dollar indiquent un potentiel de rendement à deux chiffres.
  • Rendements soutenus par de faibles taux de défaut souverains : la dette souveraine des ME devrait continuer à présenter des taux de défaut proches de zéro, offrant des rendements proches de 10 % pour les allocations concentrées sur les ME, le tout avec une volatilité contenue. Du côté des entreprises, les défauts devraient augmenter et atteindre environ 5 %, mais le phénomène se concentre sur un petit nombre d’entreprises.
  • Défis en perspective : les dangers potentiels incluent une augmentation de la volatilité du marché des bons du Trésor américain, qui pourrait poser un risque pour les titres obligataires en général, ainsi que des spreads de crédit resserrés et l’incertitude politique liée à des élections clés qui se tiendront cette année en Amérique latine et en Europe.
  • Importance de la sélectivité : il est possible de se prémunir contre les effets de la plupart des événements géopolitiques grâce à certains crédits en difficulté. Le Liban et le Venezuela, par exemple, continuent de constituer des sources d’alpha intéressantes. La classe d’actifs offre aux gestionnaires qui s’appuient sur des recherches « top-down » et « bottom-up » la possibilité de saisir bon nombre d’opportunités.

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Thème spécialisé lié

Marchés émergents

Une approche pluridimensionnelle pour une classe d'actifs vaste et évolutive.

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