Chine : toujours le Yuan ?

Jan 26, 2026

En arrivant en Chine, nous avons été frappés par le mélange intrigant d’héritage ancien et d’innovation moderne. De l’armée de terre cuite vieille de 2000 ans à la technologie de véhicules électriques de pointe dans les gratte-ciel étincelants de Shenzhen, le pays présente des contrastes saisissants.

Principaux enseignements

  • Un leader de l’innovation technologique : début 2025, la Chine a fait la preuve de ses excellentes capacités en matière d’IA avec la sortie du modèle d’IA open-source de DeepSeek. En outre, les avantages importants en matière de coûts qu’elle tire de la baisse des prix de l’énergie font qu’elle rivalise avec les États-Unis.
  • Un mouvement « anti-involution » : la surcapacité est problématique dans certains secteurs, mais le gouvernement cible la concurrence interne excessive et les problèmes de surcapacité et de guerre des prix qui en résultent dans des domaines tels que le photovoltaïque solaire.
  • Les marques de luxe : le secteur a été relativement résilient dans le sillage de la pandémie de Covid-19 et, du point de vue de l’investissement, des marques chinoises historiques, en particulier dans le secteur des bijoux de luxe, font leur apparition.
  • Les introductions en bourse à Hong Kong se portent à merveille : au quatrième trimestre de l’année dernière, le nombre de demandes a dépassé la barre des 320. La majorité sont des entreprises continentales qui cherchent à obtenir une double cotation, mais des entreprises licornes cherchent également à faire leur entrée en bourse.
  • L’importance d’une gestion active experte : les inefficacités de l’univers boursier des marchés émergents signifient qu’il est d’autant plus important de procéder à une sélection disciplinée et bottom-up des titres sur le marché chinois des actions.

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