2026 Market View: US Fixed Income

Dec 04, 2025

Andrzej Skiba, Head of US Fixed Income and BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager, summarises the market in 2025 for the asset class and gives his thoughts for 2026.

  • 2025 proved volatile for US fixed income, but ended positively, with strong total returns driven by a US Treasury rally and credit spread tightening, recovering from April’s tariff-induced sell-off through easing trade tensions, resilient labour markets, and economic stability.
  • The 2026 outlook anticipates high single-digit total returns, primarily from carry income, supported by accelerating US growth, elevated yields, spread compression, and potential Fed rate cuts.
  • A defining 2026 theme will be balancing record credit supply against investor demand, partially offset by shifting money market balances into longer-duration investments.
  • Increased return dispersion is expected across credit and securitized markets, favouring active investors who can identify "haves and have nots" amid disparities in consumer health and secular business challenges.


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