The high-grade credit opportunity from AI

Aug 12, 2026

We look at how the real story of AI debt issuance is the curve, not the volume.

Key takeaways:

  • AI is reshaping the corporate bond market: AI-related borrowing has become a major source of long duration credit – almost double that of the broader investment grade market for maturities over 10 years. It is also lifting technology’s benchmark weight from 3% in 2024 to an estimated 12% by year end 2026.
  • Steepening AI/hyperscaler yield curves reflect supply, not credit deterioration: front ends are pricing in fortress balance sheets (strong financial health and resilience), but 30-year tenors are pricing decades-long uncertainty around capex returns and compensation for persistent supply calendars.
  • A potential buying opportunity for active managers: we believe elevated carry from fortress balance sheets, combined with the prospect of spread tightening once supply overhang eases, may create a clean relative value dynamic in high-grade credit.

Read our full piece here