2026 Market View: Geopolitics

Dec 04, 2025

Timothy Ash, BlueBay Senior Sovereign Strategist, summarises the market in 2025 for the Geopolitics, and gives his thoughts for 2026.

  • Geopolitical uncertainty driven by the Trump administration shaped 2025, yet emerging markets thrived due to dollar weakness, proactive central bank policies, and a return to fundamentals.
  • For 2026, Trump’s unpredictable actions and global alliances remain a wildcard, as the world is divided by the Trump ‘friend or foe’ scenario.
  • The war in Ukraine will remain fragile for markets in 2026, with technological advancements possibly leading to a battlefield breakthrough, and the outcome impacting markets in Europe or globally.


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