The Philippines: the future is young

May 26, 2026

A recent trip to the Philippines shone a spotlight on a country that has shifted from investor favourite to one of the worst performing equity markets globally of late. Yet, while political instability and weak institutions are hindering progress, it’s clear that a young population, vast commodity wealth, and underpenetrated sectors could make the future brighter.

Key takeaways:

  • Near-term headwinds: energy inflation driven by the war in Iran, a major corruption scandal, and political uncertainty ahead of the election in 2028 have weakened investor confidence and contributed to the Philippines’ stock market underperformance recently.
  • Untapped mineral wealth: the country ranks 5th globally in mineral reserves but fails to rank in the world's top 20 exporters1. This reflects poor political conditions and institutional weaknesses rather than resource constraints, suggesting significant untapped potential for future development.
  • Demographic opportunity: with 117 million people and an average age of 26.8 years2, the Philippines has one of the world's youngest populations. This, combined with low financial penetration (13.6% consumer debt-to-GDP versus the global average of 57%3), is creating substantial long-term growth potential.
  • Institutional and political constraints: large conglomerates can be risk averse and lack innovation. Weak institutions, such as the central bank, credit bureau and stock exchange, and frequent political leadership changes are preventing reforms and economic development.
  • An investment paradox: we see current market weakness as a buying opportunity, however distinguishing between innovative companies, such as first-generation entrepreneurs, versus legacy players unable to adapt to a changing world, is key.

Read our full piece here


1 Philippines Critical Minerals.
2 Philippines Median Age & Demographics: 1960-2026.
3 IIF Global Debt Monitor.

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